A few expectations of US elections [Archives:2004/770/Reportage]

By Peter Willems
Yemen Times Staff
Thousands of Americans took to the streets in New York last week protesting against US President George Bush. The day before the Republican National Convention began at New York's Madison Square Garden, between 250,000 and 400,000 people demonstrated carrying signs and chanting “No More Bush.”
As Leslie Cagan, National Coordinator of United for Peace and Justice, which sponsored the demonstration, put it, “We are saying 'no' to the Bush agenda, 'no' to the war in Iraq, 'no' to the regime change by our government, 'no' to pre-emptive war, 'no' to the economic policies.”
There is little doubt that many Yemenis would have liked to have joined the demonstration. Since the Bush administration carried out the invasion in Iraq in March 2003, US-led occupation has continued and ongoing violence has left the war-torn country in shambles, and anti-American sentiment has risen.
Most of the Yemenis that spoke to Yemen Times said that they want Bush to be defeated in the upcoming elections next November. “All I hope for is that Bush loses in the elections,” said a Yemeni businessman. “That's all I want.”
Recent polls in the United States show that Bush, who was officially nominated at the convention as the Republican presidential candidate, is running neck-and-neck with the Democratic candidate John Kerry. A survey carried out by CNN/USA Today/Gallup two weeks ago came out with Kerry ahead of Bush 48% to 47%, with a 3.5% margin of error.
But while many Yemenis are hoping for Kerry to win, some have said that it is not clear if he will be able to make a big difference.
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has left over 2,700 Palestinians and 950 Israelis dead since 2000, is an issue that Yemenis would like solved. The Bush administration has been seen as offering little, if any, assistance to bring peace to both sides and help create a Palestinian state. Some analysts believe that US foreign policy in the Middle East, especially its position with regards to Israel, will not change whether Kerry takes office or Bush remains as president.
“There is a pervasive view throughout the Middle East that for the Arabs and the Muslims it does not matter who wins or loses,” said Abdullah Al-Faqih, Professor of Political Science at Sana'a University. “Whoever gets to the White House is going to be pro-Israeli, anti-Arab and anti-Muslim. This is the way things have been for a long time.”
There is hope that if Kerry wins, he will be able to step forward and get a peace plan moving. The last Democratic president, Bill Clinton, made an effort and came close to getting both sides to sign an agreement that would have established a Palestinian state.
“History shows that the Democratic party has tried harder than the Republicans to solve the Israeli-Palestinian problem, including Bill Clinton who almost succeeded,” said Gazem Alaghbari, Head of the Europe Department at Yemen's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “So there might be a better chance with Kerry instead of Bush.”
Some think that Kerry may see benefits of pushing for peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The United States has been fighting terrorism since the attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., on September 11th 2001. Some analysts believe that if a peace initiative succeeds, it may help the United States fight against terrorism.
“If the United States insured peace and the establishment of a Palestinian state, terrorist groups would lose over 60% of their ability to recruit new members because the Palestinian issue has been a key issue for many years,” said Al-Faqih. “A new president could see that.”
While fighting goes on and security continues to deteriorate, most analysts hold that if Kerry wins he will not be able to pull US-led troops out of Iraq soon.
“Kerry will not make a big difference in Iraq,” said Alaghbari. “The situation is too difficult for US troops to withdraw, so there might not be much of a difference between Kerry and Bush.”
Bush has focused a lot of his presidential campaign on US national security. He argues that he was responsible for the establishment of the country's Homeland Security Department and the Patriot Act to help build America's defense against potential terrorist attacks.
Bush has also linked the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to his success in fighting the war on terror.
“A free and peaceful Iraq and a free and peaceful Afghanistan will be powerful examples in a neighborhood that is desperate for liberty,” said Bush recently while speaking in New Mexico. “Free countries do not export terror.”
In the CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, US voters preferred Bush over Kerry 54% to 37% on fighting terrorism and 49% to 43% for guiding Iraq into the future.
Most Yemeni analysts see that the Bush administration not only mishandled dealing with Iraq but also distanced the United States from numerous allies around the world.
“For the last four years, I've been disappointed in US policies,” said Ahmed Al-Kibsi, Vice President for Academic Affairs and Professor of Political Science at Sana'a University. “US allies became enemies. Allies became suspects. It is difficult to understand how you can work against your own interests.”
When it comes to national security, Kerry's position is not far from his opponent's. He has promised US citizens to strengthen the US military and intelligence operations. He also said that it is too early to pull troops out of Iraq.
Analysts believe that one of Kerry's campaign promises related to the United States handling Middle East affairs is positive. To continue the war on terror and rebuild and bring peace to Iraq, he has emphasized that strengthening alliances is important. On the campaign trail, Kerry has criticized the Bush administration for taking on terror and handling the war in Iraq by “going it alone.”
“While acknowledging that Kerry might not be the best candidate, many still see him as the best of the two alternatives,” said Al-Faqih. “He has the potential of bridging the gap between the United States and its European and other allies, which has widened during the last four years, and consequently could provide the impetus for stabilizing Iraq and preventing further deterioration in the world's most unstable area, the Middle East.”
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