Why America will fail in Iraq [Archives:2003/688/Viewpoint]

November 24 2003

There are dozens of reasons why America will fail in Iraq. Among the reasons is that Iraqi people hate the USA. Hence, if the US is truthful in opening the way for real democracy, there should be no surprise if the representatives of the new government are anti-Americans who don't want the Americans to benefit from its oil and reconstruction projects.
This is why many doubt that the US will allow true, free elections. They wouldn't be in its favor.
On the other hand, assuming that America will be able to overcome all its current obstacles in Iraq, including a growing resistance movement and hostility of, many believe the US will have a hard time maneuvering in such harsh conditions, and amid presidential elections, which will have Iraq and the economy on the agenda.
Bush will certainly work on the elections and make it his priority. And how he performs in Iraq will be critical. But assuming he wins against all those odds, and gains the trust of the people in the elections, and hence continues his plans for Iraq, then he will have to pray for a post-election Iraq strategy, and that is even more challenging.
The reason is simple: Money. In a time of instability, insecurity, violence and hatred towards American forces, bringing investors and reconstructing Iraq will prove extremely difficult. Then again, this means that the hopes would lie on the transitional government to rule the country until 2005. But this cannot be a guarantee. It is a reason to worry because most Iraqis cannot tolerate figures in the current governing council such as Ahmad Chalabi and Talbani. Most Iraqis believe that those two US loyalists will fail to be decision-makers in Iraq if elections were held in a democratic fashion.
On the other hand, many Shiites in the south support religious scholars who are anti-American. They will definitely vote for them and would hence expect that they would make all the decisions necessary to prevent the US from taking over their oil or implementing its projects, which they may think as a means to 'Westernize' the country.
In other words, there is very little hope that a democratically elected government would work in the way the USA wants it to work, because the USA has many bills to pay, many loans to disburse, and many plans to apply. Besides, there are money-related issues in getting all the grants given by the US tax-payers back to the US.
The objectives of implementing a democracy and free economy in Iraq to be an ideal example to be followed by all other neighboring countries will also be at risk. This is because Iraqis are very conservative and tend to refuse being dictated upon. This will make the USA look like a power that wishes to dictate its style of government and life on another sovereign nation.
In all, the challenges and difficulties in Iraq are becoming greater and more difficult to overcome or solve in time. And those could perhaps be a result of wrong doings by the Bush administration and miscalculations by his aides and allies, which would probably be paid not by him, but by the US administration that follows.
Doesn't this remind us of Vietnam?

Next issue:
Who will pay for the consequences?