Pakistan and IraqDifficult conditions for upcoming elections [Archives:2004/778/Reportage]

By Peter Willems
Yemen Times Staff
Afghanistan: unstable presidential elections
Campaigning for the presidential elections, to be held in a week-and-a-half in Afghanistan, began earlier this month. Although the president of the interim government Hamid Karzai is the front-runner, 17 other candidates are attempting to win the country's first election in three decades.
But as the elections are approaching, many are questioning if the elections can be carried out successfully.
Two weeks ago, Karzai barely escaped an assassination attempt the first time he left the capital Kabul, during his campaign for the elections. His trip to the southeastern town of Gardez was aborted as a rocket just missed the US military helicopter carrying the president.
Late last month, a bombing attack at a security firm in Kabul that provides protection for Karzai, killed 10 people, which showed the lack of security in the heart of the country.
The Taliban have made it clear that they are aiming to derail the upcoming elections. Soon after the assassination attempt on Karzai, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and announced their intention to target all of the 18 candidates running for president.
“All presidential candidates are our top targets now because they are running for the polls of a US-made election – an election which will create a government in the interest of the Americans,” said Abdul Latif Hakimi, a Taliban spokesman.
Although US forces have been in Afghanistan for nearly three years, the mastermind of the Al-Qaeda network Osama bin Laden and his second in command Ayman Al-Zawahiri are still on the loose. US army officials now believe that the two Al-Qaeda leaders were behind some recent attacks.
“What we see are their techniques and their tactics here in Afghanistan,” said Major General Eric Olson, Operational Commander of US-led forces in Afghanistan. “I think it is reasonable to assume that the senior leaders are involved in directing those operations.”
Olson added that “I don't think we're close at all” to eliminating insurgents in Afghanistan in the near future.
What is left of the Taliban regime, which was ousted in late 2001, has regained strength and is fighting 18,000 US forces in the south. The number of casualties, coming mostly from guerrilla tactics carried out by the Taliban, has climbed to over 1,000 over the past year. This year, terrorist attacks have moved into northern areas, once calm as clashes have continued in the south. Up to 40 aid workers and a dozen election workers have been killed over the last 12 months.
The United States is sending around 1,100 soldiers of the first battalion of the 505th Parachute Infantry Regiment, which already has experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, to help secure the country for elections.
But some believe that more troops arriving just before the elections may not provide enough security.
“We welcome US troops to help us carry out elections, but security has gotten worse, and we expect violence to increase during elections,” said an Afghan government official.
Although NATO agreed in October 2003 to send more forces to help bring security to areas outside the Afghanistan government's control, member countries have hesitated to commit troops. NATO has plans to send 1,500 soldiers to boost the 6,500 International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for the elections. But NATO has yet to find countries willing to send troops into unstable areas, such as the western province of Herat.
Early this month, Karzai made a bold move by removing the Herat governor who is seen as one of the strongest warlords and reluctant to give up power. Soon after his dismissal, a riot broke out in the city of Herat and six aid agency offices were burned down while four people were killed and 50 wounded. The staff of the UN and aid organizations had to evacuate the area.
Karzai's decision was to expand the influence of the central government outside of the capital and into the countryside, but vast areas are still under the control of powerful warlords backed by armed militias.
The government is in need of the ISAF. The US army is training Afghan forces so that they will have 70,000 troops in 2009 to replace ISAF and US forces in the south. The local army now has only 15,000 soldiers.
Some think that Afghanistan is not prepared for the elections.
“We certainly anticipate a rise in attacks as we get closer to the elections and more assassination attempts against candidates, including Karzai,” said Nick Downie, who is in charge of security for non-governmental organizations.
Downie also said that the United States and NATO sending more troops is “too little too late. It's going to make very little difference and in any case should have been done long ago.”
A recent report from the Afghanistan Evaluation and Research Unit said that the candidate that wins the election may face a “crisis of legitimacy” because of the lack of international monitoring and well-trained electoral staff. The report argues that without proper supervision, there will be many flaws, like militia commanders intimidating voters and fraud.
Early this month, one of the best known organizations for observing elections, the Organization for Security and Co-operation based in Vienna, decided not to send a monitoring team due to the lack of security.
A number of presidential candidates are now calling for the elections to be delayed for a month or longer, arguing that they are not able to campaign for the presidency in such an unstable environment.
But some believe that even if the elections will be far from perfect and violence increases, the Afghans are eager to vote. Around 10.5 million have registered to vote, with women taking up over 40%.
“People are looking at the elections with hope, doubt and fear,” said Abdul Latif Rahmani, Professor of Political Science at Kabul University. “The number of people that have registered is more than was expected, and it indicates that people are willing to go to the polls, even though it may not be as easy, free and realistic as we had hoped. The people look at this event as something unique and are eager to vote because of the opportunity to express themselves.”
But it is unclear what will happen as the elections get closer.
US Ambassador in Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad said that he expects the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and affiliate groups to continue their attacks. He also said that there might be a “spectacular” offensive carried out by the rebel groups between now and the elections.

Iraq: elections in a danger zone
When Iraqi interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi traveled to Washington, D.C., last week, he gave a positive speech to the US Congress on the situation in Iraq and assured that elections will be held next January.
“Let me be absolutely clear – elections will occur in Iraq, on time in January, because Iraqis want elections on time,” Allawi said to Congress. “Despite the setbacks and daily outrages, we can and should be hopeful for the future.”
During his visit, he added that 14 or 15 out 18 provinces in Iraq are safe, and “if you look at Iraq properly, there are no problems. It's safe. It's good.”
But government officials and leaders are now divided on whether the elections can be carried out fully or if elections should be held in the war-ravaged country at the beginning of next year.
Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the conditions in Iraq are getting worse, but the US government believes elections will be held as scheduled.
“The reason it's getting worse is that they [the insurgents] are determined to disrupt the election,” said Powell. “Because it's getting worse, we will have to increase our efforts to defeat it, not walk away and pray and hope for something else to happen.”
Richard Armitage, US Deputy Secretary of State, said to Congress recently that the elections will have to be held in every area of the country.
Others, however, believe that with ongoing clashes people going to the polls in some parts of Iraq may not be possible.
“The level of violence may very well increase between now and the Iraqi elections,” said US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to the Armed Service Committee of the US Congress last week. “If there were to be an area that was – where the extremists focused during the election period and an election was not possible in that area at that time, so be it. You have the rest of the election and you go on. Life's not perfect.”
A few days ago, Iraqi Vice President Barham Saleh supported Rumsfeld's view of a partial election process, claiming that if violence continues in some areas people will not be safe enough to vote.
There are also voices arguing that elections in January are not feasible due to heightened violence and lawlessness. King Abdullah of Jordan said this week that “it appears to me impossible to organize indisputable elections in the chaos currently reigning in Iraq.”
The king added that if some people are excluded from voting, the country could become even more divided after the elections, which might heighten violence.
“I don't think the elections at the beginning of next year are possible,” said Abdullah Al-Faqih, Professor of Political Science at Sana'a University in Yemen. “You need a stable country to hold elections. The conditions are actually getting worse, and they probably won't change very much in the next few months.”
Since the US invasion in March 2003, over 1,000 US soldiers have been killed. In the last year, daily attacks on US troops by insurgents jumped from an average of 20 a day to around 85 daily. Rebel groups have kidnapped around 140 people, and a number of the hostages have been killed. Insurgents also target Iraqi security forces, and ongoing attacks have killed thousands of Iraqis.
The elections, scheduled to be held on January 31st, 2005, will come out with a national assembly which will decide on the new government replacing the interim government headed by Prime Minister Allawi. The first national assembly chosen by the Iraqi citizens will also take on the task of writing the country's new constitution.
Iraqi authorities will be using unusual tactics to reduce the risk of registering voters before the elections. The database created for food rationing under the Saddam Hussein regime will be used in November at distribution centers instead of setting up registration sites.
Powell has said that the US and Iraqi forces are planning a major offensive to try and tighten security before the elections. He said that the offensive will probably include the “Sunni Triangle,” by focusing first on Ramadi and Samarra, followed by the most difficult target Fallujah.
“The other ones, I think, are more manageable. Ramadi and Samarra, I think we'll get those back under control, and then we'll have to deal with Falluja,” Powell said.
According to Allawi, the Iraqi government is trying to develop its own security force. The plan is to increase its forces from 50,000 today to 250,000 by the end of next year.
But if the level of violence remains over the next few months, many will continue to wonder if the elections can be carried out in January.
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