Arab issues and new leaderships [Archives:2007/1054/Opinion]
Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb
It is projected that changes will happen in the leaderships of several powerful countries. Some of these countries actually experienced change while others are preparing for it. The former French President Jacques Chirac left the Elysee (Presidential Palace), the British Prime Minister Toney Blair is due to quit soon, and within a few months, the Russian President Vladmir Putin will step down. After a while, the U.S. presidential elections will take place for the White House to have a new face, and the case is similar in Israel, as well as in Lebanon from the Arab countries.
According to such predicted developments, the situation requires us to record the potential results and the influence of these developments on the Arab issues. We have to select the Palestinian Cause, the Iraqi issue, and Darfur's catastrophe, and bear in mind that these countries, seemingly enjoying democratic regimes, control roles of individuals with firm regulations, which are different from rule of the president, who had the single and unique decision.
The situation is similar in the south part of the Peninsula and the third world countries including the Arab states. But the human element retained its big margin in exercising endless influence on the regimes while the antique components remained fixed but the details may undergo change and the methods may differ while we are able to project how the future will look like as a result of the predicted changes.
France is an important state to the international relations in general and the European ties in particular. In addition, it has a clear role in the Middle East policies, particularly as it doesn't suffer absolute directedness of the United States as the case of Britain. The great rescuer of France Jacques Chirac has established the rules of his state's political independence, however, the matter's effects are still tangible until the moment.
The French stance, as well as that of Germany, which came a bit later, toward the Iraq's war is still printed in the Arabs' minds. Such stance is distinguished by a degree of moderation and balance between the Palestinian and Israeli sides and within the limit of the western commitment to ensuring security and peace of Israel. This stance appears closer to the Arab situation in General if Lebanon remained a party in the Israeli-Arab conflict due to the historic and traditional ties between Lebanon and France. Chirac's absence from France's political life stage is due to influence the former aspects irrespective of the French people's being strongly committed to the Arab issues, stability, and peace in the Middle East.
The end of British government that lasted for absolute ten years with the Prime Minister Toney Blair, the staunch ally to the U.S. President George Bush, is due to have influence on the Arab issues, as the U.K is a main partner of Washington in all what it does. It automatically votes in favor of the Superpower at the UN Security Council during all the world crises and international problems.
We haven't realized that Britain's behavior is far away from this context until Boutros Ghali assumed duty as UN Secretary-General. Since then, Washington has become the only power to use the Veto while other fourteen countries voted in favor of the Arab Secretary-General to insist on his stand. In fact, Toney Blair's character provokes controversy, which adds a new dimension to the potential influence due to his prospective disappearance from the European political stage.
Blair is behind the US-led occupation of Iraq and the consequences of the war. He is the only one who is enthusiastic and fond of Washington's policies. As a result, this makes us bear in mind that the end of the Labor Party's rule in Britain or the retention of Blair will set before us new options.
One of these options may be expediting the pullout of British forces from Iraq, particularly as they played a primary role in occupying the Shia areas and dominated Basra and the south part of Iraq. At this point, we want to make sure that the disappearance of Toney Blair and his government, era and policies, doesn't mean an end to the strong bond London enjoys with Washington. The bond will be the main topic of certain review by the prospective British cabinet and Prime Minister, whether he is from the Labor Party or the Conservative Party. This is why I am strongly enthusiastic to watch the coming changes.
The Arab-Russian relations need comprehensive review since they remained governed by fixed factors for several years. The Caesarean Russia was ruled by the Church and the Soviet Russia was affected by the western dominance over most of the Arab areas that remained under the old colonial influence.
After a while, Russia managed to attract some Arab regimes in a political coalition against the global imperialism. There has been no chance for the traditional game between the two poles of the world amid the duality of international forces to attract the Arab regimes throughout years of the Cold War. When the personality of ambiguous history assumed the highest political post in the Soviet Union (meaning Vladmir Putin), we found that he has a strong hand that started to help Moscow restore some of its status in terms of retaining intense ties with Washington and taking neutral stances with regard to the Arab issues.
In the meantime, we found ourselves before a new type of the Russian regime that deals with the Arab states within certain limits. This is the game of balance, which Moscow mastered over the past years and this was evidently manifested in the Iraqi issue as the Russian voice (vote) in the UN turned to reflect the moderate policy that has been made apparent through Moscow's stance toward the Iranian Nuclear dossier.
China, which has been always insistent on the Arab issues, began to develop the moderate stance toward the Arab – Israel conflict and other regional issues in the Middle East.
We write these lines to express the Arab hope for the double-standard policy to disappear, as well as for the coming changes to be more balanced and moderate toward the Arab issues, closer to the rights of the Palestinian people, more faithful in the liberty of Iraqi people, and more objective to Darfur's crisis. The situation has gone from bad to worse.
When can we benefit from the examples of France, Russia, and Britain? Also, when can we make changes come true and analyze their results as well as their influence on the contemporary situation of Arabs? Additionally, when can we prepare ourselves on how to handle the future to help improve the security and stability of our nations?
Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb is an economist and a professor in Political Science. He is the head of the Arab Group for Investment and Development.
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