Arab leaders need to plan carefullyWinds of change follow Rafik al-Hariri [Archives:2005/822/Opinion]
By Prof. Dr. Abdulaziz al-Tarb
Yemen Times Staff
More than one of the region's volatile fronts are bracing for change after the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri in Lebanon.
Iraq overcame great hindrances when Iraqis, or a good number of them, challenged terrorist threats and headed for polling stations. With their boldness and aspiration for a better reality, they got their rights, despite missiles, projectiles, car bombs and all other means for death and devastation.
Other abrupt changes in the region are represented in Sharm al-Sheikh Summit and its resolutions that need to be studied.
The assassination of Rafik al-Hariri comes after many events: the relative success in Iraq and the outcome of Sharm al-Sheikh; Sudanese Agreement; preparations to set up a new Palestinian government via debut elections after Arafat; and what happens in Egypt before electing Mubarak for a new term.
The many bitter experiences have taught us not to be all optimistic that the peace process will suffer no breach. Now, we see that the international community is insisting to implement Resolution No. 1559 before the Lebanese elections. Assassinating al-Hariri has catalyzed the international intervention. Previously, there were only France and the US, but now the whole world demand Syria to pull out from Lebanon.
The plan to implement the said resolution is based on the presumption that no free elections would be possible without implementation of the resolution and setting up an international commission to investigate the perfectly planned assassination. This has distracted the world's attention from Iraq to the conditions in Lebanon and Syria.
The winds of change blowing against the region bear something new in many respects. The Bush Administration should realize that it is vital to involve the international community to force Syria's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon, and that the jointly France-US made Resolution No. 1559 has become a cosmopolitan demand.
Therefore, the people of the region, especially decision-makers, should carefully read the general international attitude and immediately know that committing fatal mistakes does not redeem the doers. I can expect international attitudes to be anything other than charities providing solutions and counsels gratuitously. A decision-maker who is not able to predict the consequences of the current attitude would expose himself and his people to many a change, which come most often from the blue.
The insistence of Europe and the US that the Syrian forces must withdraw from Lebanon invites us to submit a bunch of Arab issues and suggestions to the prospective summit in Algeria to use them as an approach towards a unified Arab decision
– Immediate approval of reforms, boosting democracy and public participation.
– Quick approval of the Mutual Arab Market; giving freedom for Arab capitals to move among Arab countries, lifting barriers; removing obstacles, amending constitutions for next elections so that anyone, who feels to be able to serve the people, may compete; belief in peaceful transfer of power.
– Revival of the historical resolution of Lebanon Summit taking it as an approach to the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the implementation of the Security Council's Resolution No. 1559.
Reading what is happening in the area tells us that after al-Hariri's assassination, the ball is in our court. We should reshuffle our cards to cope with the Great Middle East plans and produce well-studied decisions that fall in line with the menacing developments in the area. We should face up the following points:
Is Bush the second is any different from Bush the first? If yes, where does the difference lie?
There is a new Palestinian president and the US president has won a new term; Sharon himself believes that a settlement should be reached so as to save the lives of the Israelis whom he promised to bring peace within 100 days from walking into office. Similarly, Palestinians are convinced that they should reach an agreement to stop bloodshed. These are factors that may help prepare for a gradual unperturbing change in order to avoid storms that would turn everything topsy-turvy.
The withdrawal of the Syrian forces from Lebanon in the manner prescribed by the US and, of course Israel, weakens the Arabs' stance, weakens Hizbullah, and weakens Syria in the event of any negotiations with Israel. Such strategic issues necessitate that the Algeria Arab Summit puts a schedule and a transparent plan to bring together the shattered Arabs, and sends a message to the international community to heal the situation in the area through Israel's withdrawal from the Arab occupied territories, mutual recognition, Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon, more equal opportunities and involvement of NGOs in the political life.
As researchers and thinkers, can we write our way in this direction so that Arab leaders find a hot file containing alternative methods to get out of this dark tunnel and not to be taken aback by surprises?
It is just an opinion presented for discussion and study as we are approaching the Algeria Summit. Arab leaders must see the looming changes and give priority to the future of the area since they are the ones who would be most affected.
——
[archive-e:822-v:13-y:2005-d:2005-03-07-p:opinion]
