Bush administration in crisis [Archives:2006/912/Opinion]
By: Prof. Abdulaziz al-Tarb
The Bush administration has taken the initiative when it has admitted that is experiencing a dilemma when it turned towards Iran seeking its help to deal with the situation in Iraq. The stand does really represent and affirm a beginning of significant concessions with the U.S. ambassador in Iraq is to embark on implementing a plan on the necessity of heading towards Iran and the use of diplomacy and dialogue with it after the |Bush administration had put Iran on the list of axis of evil countries.
The new conservatives of the extremist right are exposed to intensive internal pressures imposing on them the necessity of possibility of somewhat withdrawal from Iraq despite the impression that Bush had given in his address. There and then Bush tried to express his suspect of that to occur. All indicators confirm that the White House is experiencing an acute crisis and it is quite enough the drop in the popular support to the lowest level, the public opinion demand for withdrawal from Iraq added o that the American material losses. The U.S. sustains losses of $ 6 billion a month in maintaining its military operations in Iraq, which is a matter it could not continue to bear. In addition there are the human losses in tens of killed and wounded among its soldiers. It is also no secret the democratic and republican congress members activity in their demand for the troop withdrawal, taking into account the legislative elections. The republicans want to keep their seats in the congress and consequently do not want to take part while on their shoulders the responsibility of the war in Iraq that has lost its legitimacy.
For al those reasons came the initiative of contacting Iran as an attempt for coming out of the current dilemma and to open the way before the possibility of withdrawing some of the troops from Iraq in a way the Bush administration would not seem to be defeated or to appear as if forced to do that under pressure of the Iraqi resistance. The Bush administration fears much to look like that and thus it fights hard in its attempt to face saving.
The initiative the American ambassador to Iraq would undertake its carrying out is an attempt to salvage Bush from the quagmire in which he drowned himself and to reduce the pressures his administration is facing in the American congress and the street. The military might has failed to defeat the resistance. There is no doubt that Iran would seize this opportunity and America's need for its efforts to bargain with Bush administration on other files, mainly the nuclear dossier. For that reason, Iran has, in its first reaction, not welcomed and did not show its enthusiasm to communicate with America, first to prepare itself for bargaining and second to obtain some kind of reward from America in other files in return for its stand.
Undoubtedly, the turning towards Iran might be the magical formula for America and the trump card for Iran at the present time. It is particularly so as in America's invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq it has achieved for Iran a hidden desire for ending two of its arch enemies; the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. To be fair, we can affirm that America has not succeeded in that alone and Iran was rather always with it and played an auxiliary role in destruction of the two regimes.
America's seeking of help from Iran has not come out of emptiness. America realizes the volume of the Iranian influence in Iraq and thus Iran's assistance for Bush administration in controlling the situation could be a pretext for America to say that the circumstances have changed and the stage has become prepared to reduce the number of its forces in Iraq, especially after the general elections there.
Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb is an economist and a professor in Political Science and an expert in administrative development. He is the head of a number of professional associations, such as the Arab Group for Investment and Development.
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