Democracy, demonstrations and the W.T.O. [Archives:2005/864/Opinion]
By David Watt
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As a young student from Europe who has studied much of the modern history of the Middle East, a history often highlighted by instability and authoritarianism, coming to Yemen a year ago was a surprise, and a very much a refreshing one. Here tucked away in arguably the most unknown corner of the Middle East was a country were democracy was apparently alive and well with a free press and a people who were far from concerned about speaking publicly as to the short comings of their government and even, let it be said, their president. This is not to say that Yemen is the land of milk and honey, it lacks the belligerent wealth of its Northern neighbours and is endowed with a population larger than the rest of the Gulf region put together. The pressures are great but the also the outlook appears to be one of hope rather than the despair that afflicts many similar countries a short distance to the west in Horn of Africa.
Yemen with its' democracy and now the prospect, though perhaps I speak too soon, of a peaceful hand over of power from the presidency is exceptional in the Middle East and indeed the developing world.
Although endowed with oil reserves they are far from sufficient to be the single prop for development in such a populous state. This is perhaps a blessing, the skews and dangers of Dutch Disease1 that have blighted Iran, (possibly the most similar oil state to Yemen) which were a direct result of the fabulous wealth that was on offer, swamped an otherwise diverse economy buoyed by a capable and determined people.
From this position though the natural path for Yemen to market itself in global trade.
The country has a massive capacity for tourism, despite the 'dangers of terrorism' (a betting man would currently avoid London before Marib), that is still very much undeveloped, but also is in prime place to compete for Europe's demand for cash crops like all year vegetables and flowers that have enriched other countries such as Kenya. This calls for a degree of vision in Agricultural policy, and perhaps a move away from simply growing more gat, towards one that responds to and exploits the demands of consumers. The fishing sector is one that Yemen is already forging ahead with, recording a 30-40% rise in exports successively over the last 3 years, an impressive feat and one that must be sustained. But before voices cry that I am suggesting that the only way to get ahead is to become subservient to 'The Global Market' it must be remembered that although the customer is always right, he is also always paying you.
Looming over this debate, perhaps inevitably, is the ever contentious subject of the World Trade Organization. It is perhaps the most distrusted, and often most detested, organization in the world but is also more often than not the most misunderstood. Much to the ire of many anti-globalists of my own generation, a lack of knowledge is not an excuse for hooliganism.
Its explicit purpose is to facilitate global trade; in much the same way as phones and the internet have distributed knowledge like never before, the WTO seeks to allow the 'cyber-connections' between producers and consumers world-wide be realized through the removal of trade-tariffs and barriers. As suspicious and as furiously 'Free Trade' as this may sound the organization is primarily a talking shop for working through disputes between nations and putting in place wider agreements for multi-national cooperation on opening up trade. Seeing as the three biggest consumers in the world, the US, Japan and Europe, are also the three biggest subsidizers and tariff supporters in the world this organization would seem to support the poorer nations who are hard done by not being allowed to fairly compete in their markets. However it is not a one way process as its other demands, which are in truth only reasonable, are for the protection of corporate investments in their destination countries. So if we say that this is an organization which supports free trade and the removal of punitive measures that throttle the economies of developing nations such as India and Brazil what does it mean for Yemen? And why has Yemen been so interested in joining?
The economic moves that could bring new export earnings to Yemen have already been mentioned but for these to bear fruit integration with a trade forum like the WTO is vital. Hence why the Yemeni government applied for membership in 2000, it is a far sighted step to link into wider markets and trade agreements that will become increasingly important in the future development of the country's economy.
However a vigorous anti-globalist would say that last weeks fuel price hike can be attributed to the WTO and the World Bank. It is true to say that the World Bank loan stipulations and WTO entry have demanded that Yemen remove its subsidies on fuel and certain other goods such as concrete, but there are other much larger factors at play in this sum. Fuel subsidies are expensive, particularly when designed to support prices at $30 a barrel now that they are close to $60. The Yemeni government has been running with a fiscal deficit as they have increased the scope of the state and as a result their spending, due in no small part to state subsidies. The example of Indonesia, in its current state of bankruptcy from pretending that oil is still cheap is not one to follow.
So if anything the cutting of subsidies is a frugal and responsible act by the government, though perhaps doing this in one night is a foolishly blunt solution.
I would however also applaud the reaction of the wider Yemeni public. An obviously unexpected and unwelcome move was met by protests which voiced the general opinion. Both Britain and France are famous for assertive civic action; French truckers and farmers regularly blockade the countries borders whilst British haulers paralyzed the country several times in 2000 & 2001 for days on end over fuel price rises. This is not the sign of weak government and despotic rule, as I hope the western media realizes, but a sign of a free society in rude health, perhaps a mechanism for registering protest marches would not go amiss but the fact that the people are unafraid to come out against the government is to be admired.
I merely hope that this civic responsibility, reminding the government that it can't do whatever it feels like, continues and blossoms in the future. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said that he will not stand in the upcoming elections and that someone should come forward from the younger generations. Take him at his word; he has done great things for Yemen and it would be a great shame if a record which elevates him to one of the greatest leaders in the developing world is tarnished at the last hurdle. Take to the streets not merely when it becomes more expensive to fill up your cars, this is merely of material concern, but make sure that you come out in the thousands when you feel your political independence and freedom is threatened.
1Dutch Disease: The deindustrialization of a nation's conomy that occurs when the discovery of a natural resource raises the value of that nation's currency, making manufactured goods less competitive with other nations, increasing mports and decreasing exports. The term originated in Holland after the discovery of North Sea gas.
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