If the two giants unite [Archives:2006/1011/Opinion]

archive
December 28 2006

By: Farouq Luqman
In the Indian economic capital, which provides half of India's total tax revenue, some told me that the nicest gift for a groom in the 1950s was a table fan, if his house had electricity. Therefore, that's what I did when I visited in 1958, a time when electricity was widespread in the houses of Aden, as well as televisions, refrigerators and washing machines. My contemporaries may remember that the most famous type of fan was OSHA, whose showroom was in Crater district and was able to compete with imported British products.

Other than electric fans, there was also the usually good Indian cloth made of cotton and other common fibers. Up until then, economic policy impeded importation from other countries so as not to compete with British imports. People also may remember that most cars at that time were British until Japanese cars were imported. Indian cars weren't available because India's car production was insufficient to meet local consumption. Since Indian products were still in their beginning and had a low reputation, Yemeni consumers didn't buy them.

Despite this, most doctors, lawyers, engineers, technicians and teachers were Indians, who controlled the cloth trade, navigation, banks and beverages.

I remembered all of this while following the Chinese prime minister's historic visit to India last month and his indications about the possibility of establishing a common market for the two nations, which, if realized, would include three out of every eight persons in the world. India alone represents more than 200 million of the world's population living on 1.2 million square miles of land extending from the Himalayan Mountains in the north to the outskirts of Sri Lanka to the south, as well as bordering Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan and sharing common borders with Myanmar to the east.

Although China has a larger area and a higher population, the two nations are competing at a high rate to win the world's highest proportion of economic growth. It's said that China will be superior to Japan by 2020 and that India will be the second nation in Asia and one of the largest economic and industrial powers in the world if things continue in this way and the two nations have witnessed no terrorist acts or dangerous ethnic disturbances during that time.

The Chinese leader's remarks aroused amazement, with repercussions not simply confined to Asia, but outside it as well. Current observers can't imagine that nearly half the world's population may form a common market with the largest proportion of both skilled and unskilled workers and seemingly imaginary natural resources and educational standards, especially in India, whose graduates are in-demand by many world governments and thus, work for them at high salaries. For instance, an Indian master's graduate presently makes $75,000 annually in his country and $200,000 annually if he works in a Western nation.

I remember what I used to offer journalists I recruited from Mumbai and Delhi from 1980 to 1985, offering them $1,000 per month and $100 for their residence, in addition to a transportation allowance. However, when I visited Delhi a year and a half ago, I couldn't tempt any good journalist to come with me for less than $4,000, including allowances and the cost of educating his children in the Gulf, even before he could leave his city. This is why we find English newspapers in the Gulf advertising their needs to Indians living in the region.

The question of the two giants' economic unification will remain suspended for several decades because it's larger than what minds in the two nations can imagine. Undoubtedly, the United States, Japan and even Europe will resist as much as possible through various means, not just the two giants' unity, but rather any closeness between them.

China is expected to continue its march toward growth for many decades because more than 1.25 billion people still need all that its government can offer. While the Chinese government continues pursuing a strong centralized regime, most of its southern regions experience a capitalist system similar to Hong Kong because it's no longer able to stop the wheels of openness to capitalism.

India now is growing at a rate of more than 8 percent annually and it hopes to reach 9-10 percent within the next decade. This has created for it a middle class amounting to approximately 200 million people. Because of its openness to the world, India has managed to attract tens of millions of investment dollars annually, which leads to employing hundreds of thousands of its educated and skilled citizens.

It's true that a majority of Indians and Chinese still live at or below the poverty line, but we're talking about a population equal to half of the Earth, so it's just not possible to offer jobs and a means of living to every one of them. However, there will come a day when trained Indians won't need to leave their country except for tourism or to deliver lectures at other universities.

Source: 26 September newspaper
——
[archive-e:1011-v:14-y:2006-d:2006-12-28-p:opinion]