Iran the Gulf player (1-2) [Archives:2006/930/Opinion]

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March 20 2006

Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb
Iran with its nuclear program is presently representing the big apprehension for the United States and the West because it has entered the direct circle of challenge to an extent that its nuclear dossier has been sent to the UN Security council.

As a matter of fact, the real concern hunting all springs from the ideas dominating the philosophy of governance in Iran. It makes Israel believe that it is targeted in the first place by the Iranian nuclear program. This is especially so as Tehran has in recent years achieved noticeable successes at both political and strategic levels. The United States and is allies invasion of Iraq and consequently occupying its land and toppling the regime there, represented a great service for Iran that suffered long from the rule of former president Saddam Hussein who entered a war with it that exhausted the two sides over eight years. The second service Iran has acquired has been strengthening of the Shiites' positions in due to their population weight. That has resulted in a tangible Iranian presence in southern Iraq, in addition to its effect on the political decision there. Washington has added a third service to the Persian state when it had toppled the Sunni regime of Taliban in Kabul. Therefore, we believe that Iran is in a position giving it the opportunity to be able to stand as adversary against the west and Israel. Iran also realizes that the United States will find it difficult to open a new front in Iran after its involvement in Iraq. Also, Tehran put a wager on sentiments of general rejection of the American policy in the Middle East and rather in other parts of the world. As we tackle this subject we will approach it through the following points.

First, the domestic developments in Iran in the recent years deserve to be directly observed and to be honestly defined. A few years ago I visited Iran and was astonished by the difference between what I had seen and what is said about it. I found myself before a modern, holding together state where there are non-stop dialogues. The woman there takes part in the political life at all levels. It possesses cinema industry, the second in Asia after India. In addition, it had a family planning program that is the most successful in the Islamic world. All that means that Iran is not the state of the “mullahs” who only engaged in immaterial things.

Second, the situations in East Gulf region seem to be unstable. Pakistan for instance, under the rule of Musharaf, tries to change towards the Turkish example or the like in dealing with issues of political Islam I addition to the changes that took place in the political arena and governance in the Gulf States. These all are pressurizing factors push Iran to hardheadedness, particularly under presidency of a hardliner man the type of Mahmoud Ahmedi Najad. The dangers threatening Syria, the first Arab ally to Iran, add another factor to Iran's factors for heading towards confrontation with the west, without consideration of or paying attention to possible consequences.

Third, Iran carries a heavy political heritage. It refuses Israel for ideological reasons but it does nit show enthusiasm towards the Arabs for historical reasons. It is sufficient to remember now its strict stance concerning the naming of the gulf as Persian instead of Arabian and its insistence on that as well as its willingness for escalation in this regard. Its occupation of the three Emirates' islands enhances what we have mentioned that Iran is a pragmatic state behaving with strong cleverness and awareness. It goes ahead towards its great goal to be the essential and major power in west Asia and the major player in the Gulf.

Fourth, Israel is the main planner of the American policy in the Middle East and it looks at Iran with much concern. That concern is not the product of recent years but rather associated with the Israeli American understanding regarding Islamic fundamentalism and the concept of religious jihad (sacred war) and what uncalculated stands and terrorist operations that may result from it. The French president Jacque Chirac's statement has added a new dimension to confrontation hen he gave the impression of the possibility of his country's using of the nuclear weapons if it reckoned that there would be some party to use it for threatening the French territories. So, it seems that the majority of members of the nuclear club share the United States its concern towards the Iranian nuclear activity.

Fifth, I am of the opinion of those who believe that power conquers bravery and that the technological advancement and economic superiority may sweep nations that are most capable of steadfastness or most adamant. Therefore, the excessive confidence Iran is showing now tolls he alarm bell. It reminds me of hat we have known of some regimes that engaged in uncalculated confrontations and the results had been tragic. If we supposed that Iran possesses chemical weapons or long-range missiles, the situation remains as it is. The reason is that we have been used that the west and its allies, including Federative Russia, would be aligned when the decisive moment of confrontation comes with any party of the developing world. The escalation we observe on part of Iran at the moment does not necessarily express of real power as much as an expression of principles and values that are not widespread merchandise at the contemporary age.

Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb is an economist and a professor in Political Science and an expert in administrative development. He is the head of a number of professional associations, such as the Arab Group for Investment and Development
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[archive-e:930-v:14-y:2006-d:2006-03-20-p:opinion]