Iran the Gulf player (2-2) [Archives:2006/932/Opinion]

archive
March 27 2006

Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb
Attention should be drawn to the situation towards which Iran is heading, along with all it dangers and indications that would have their reflection on the entire region. In this regard we want to call attention to certain considerations.

1-No reasonable person will think that the United States is possible to venture, at any stage, to take military action intended to enter Iran or occupy part of it. The American plight in Iraq is the best evidence on impossibility of that. Also, present Iran is not that of Saddam's Iraq. The circumstances are different, the composition is varied and the situations are not similar. In my view the one that targets Iran in the first place is the Hebrew state. It has already begun pointing the finger of accusation towards Iran and Syria of motivating Hezbollah and of rather standing behind some of the recent suicide bombings inside Israel. That is the propagating media introduction that Israel always practices. I also do not have any doubt that Israel every now and then embraces the idea of dealing a blow to Iran's nuclear installations, although those installations are guarded and surrounded with a belt of missiles. Israel that had hit the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, will not hesitate in repeating the crime against Iran at the time it considers as suitable and in case international and regional circumstances allow that action.

2-While he United States and its allies have thought of changing the Syrian regime from inside it and to undermine its structure, their perception regarding Iran is different. They do not seek to change its regime because that is a difficult and complicated matter. They tend to incapacitate the Persian state and weaken it, to dwarf its role and to control its political and military decision. It is believed that attaining that goal is not an easy question because Iran, like Iraq, is the type of a state that is hard to manage and ungovernable.

3-What is probably eye-catching in this context is that the states of the Arab Gulf do not share Iran its enthusiasm for its nuclear program. They rather look at it with strong concern. Maybe that explains those states' talk about rendering the Gulf region alone into a region free of weapons of mass destruction. In following up the dialogue on a message of the Arab League secretary general sent to secretary general of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the reply the first had received. The reply confirmed that, for the Gulf mentality, the Iranian nuclear danger is no less than that of the Israeli nuclear danger but maybe more dangerous for them.

In this respect we want to say tat Iran is the major player in the Gulf region. It holds the reins of confrontation wit the west under worrying ramifications and difficult circumstances predicting upcoming problems and possible confrontations. They are led by a revolutionary Islamic regime that does not hesitate in discrediting the holocaust story and shedding skepticism on the story of the Nazis holocaust against the Jews. This regime goes further in calling for moving Israel to central Europe instead of its aggression on the Arab territories and occupation of Palestine and tampering with Islamic and Christian sanctities.

In the Arab world we perceive the Iranian- international confrontation with hesitation look. Most of the Arab regimes are allies to the United States of America. Moreover most of the Arab regimes look with concern and suspicion towards the Iranian regime that possesses political agenda that may agree with the Arab goals versus the conflict with Israel. However, the Iranian regime is different from them concerning other things and issues. If Iran is thinking of what is called the Shiite Crescent, it on the other hand seeking to build bridges with the Arab east and in this matter it has a huge asset that cannot be belittled or play down its impact. I our view Iran has achieved noticeable successes in its foreign policy in the recent years. Nevertheless it has to preserve those successes under the explosive situation inside its neighbor Iraq, beside its unstable eastern neighbor Afghanistan as well as to other possible disturbances in the Middle East. The Arab Israeli conflict could continue for more years and he situation in general are not heading for quick stability. We are in need of the voice of reason to prevail in the region but it seems that the Iranian player has decided is decision and has begun throwing the ball into the courts of others. Iran's hardened stand reflects the state of mobilization the Iranians are living, the philosophy massing up in which the Iranians believe and the desire of escalating the situation until reaching the state of brinkmanship. In conclusion my view is that Iran is the major player of the Gulf and it maybe the source of tension in it and cause of the confrontation heading towards it.

Prof. Abdulaziz Al-Tarb is an economist and a professor in Political Science and an expert in administrative development. He is the head of a number of professional associations, such as the Arab Group for Investment and Development.
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