National deal or travesty? [Archives:2006/947/Opinion]
Mustafa Rajeh
The Yemeni national deal seems to be in recession now. In fact, it has lost all significance as the September elections lie only four months ahead. What is important is that there is no content in the deal itself. A detailed analysis would help to shed light on the basics of the deal.
The problem in Yemen, like other Arab countries, lies in the fact that the presidential post is not open to the public. The post will presumably be granted to a ruler who has dominated it for the past 28 years. The elections are dealt with as a legal hurdle for retaining power and not as an opportunity available for all.
Moreover, prospects for change are not promising. Internal forces seem to lack the willpower for political change. External change is destructive and Iraq is a good example of that. Depending on the above, the perspectives of the deal could be based on two principals: the ruling bloc and the opposition. The message that the ruling forces are circulating is that alternatives for the present regime will be either religious extremism or anarchy. This suggestion is justified by the absence of previous peaceful political transitions, and the lack of awareness in this respect. As for that, the external powers concerned with the Yemeni affairs are offering the option of freedom instead of the impossibility of an imminent presidential reshuffle. They demand that a modern independent judiciary is the least that Yemeni society deserves. Transparency in parliamentary elections and giving a free hand to civil society organizations is also suggested. Opportunities for business people are also to be provided in order to pave the way for the democratic change. All these demands are meaningless in the place of a postponed process of peaceful transfer of power, at least for the time being.
The internal parties have tackled the national deal from a different perspective. Following the announcement of President Saleh on 17 July 2005 that he will not nominate himself for the presidency in the upcoming election, Yasin Noman, the Secretary General of the Socialist Party, belittled the value of this announcement as he thinks that what matters now is how to arrange for a peaceful transfer of power. He prudently asserted that the president is throwing stones into a stagnant pool.
When the opposition represented by the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) declared their agenda, there was speculation that there was a deal in the offing and that President Saleh would accept key points mentioned in the opposition's program. In particular, it was expected that Saleh would accept the points concerned with constitutional amendments and the shift from a presidential form of government to a parliamentary one. However, other points dealt with transforming elections from the individual representative system to admixture of the individual and proportional system. A neutral electoral committee and the expansion of empowerment of local councils' authority were also demanded in the program. Another important point was that the president was to leave his post as head of the supreme judiciary council's board and to give the judiciary the chance to appoint their board from among themselves. Lastly, the other part of the deal was that Saleh would be announced as the national candidate of the entire Yemeni political spectrum and of the civil society organizations.
This deal was not successful: President Saleh and his regime cease to recognize it anymore. They do no even feel that they are in need of it. They refused to budge on the status of the election committee considering it a “red line” that should not be crossed. Furthermore, instead of making concessions in accordance with the opposition's proposals, the President addressed the military forces and incited them against journalists and against the opposition. He used this vital national institution to threaten those who yearn for change. These behaviors do not leave much space for the opposition to compromise. Their alternative was to leave behind their old methods of confining themselves to their physical premises and the issuance of political statements. They had to reach out to their constituency and be more aware of their problems.
Last week, Mohamed Qahtan, the speaker of the JMP said: “We hope that we should not be compelled to undertake Samson's option.” Qahtan was commenting on the public alternative. However, this is an incorrect assessment because resorting to the public as an alternative is natural and an inevitable strategic option that cannot be relegated to the election time only.
Mustafa Rajeh is a Yemeni journalist
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[archive-e:947-v:14-y:2006-d:2006-05-18-p:opinion]
