Silver LingingYemen’s major 2009 challenges [Archives:2009/1222/Opinion]
Dr. Mohammed Al-Qadhi
I remember that I wrote the beginning of 2008 about the challenges ahead of Yemen's government in 2008. It seems to me these challenges remain the same during 2009.
The situation in Sa'ada remains to be tense despite the declaration to stop the war mid July. During the last few weeks, there have been reports on on-and-off clashes between government troops and the rebels in some areas. Reported clashes between al-Houthi and Al Alhamati tribe which also demonstrate the situation is not completely stable over there.
The al-Houthi supporters were for the first time publicly and without government harassment able to celebrate last December al-Ghadeer festivals which mark the day in which the fourth Caliph Ali Bin Abi Taleb, took over power.
They had a very big festival in Sa'ada in which they fired different sorts of arms to celebrate the occasion but the same time show their strength and they are still powerful. This time the celebration extended to other provinces like Thamar, al-Jawf, Ammran Hajja which is also a good message that al-Houthi supporters are everywhere and in case there is any eruption for the fight again, the confrontations will not be limited to Sa'ada only but can go beyond to other places as what happened in the last round where the fight went further to Harf Sefian in Ammran and Bani Hushaish in Sana'a.
Al-Houthis have come from the war stronger and their confidence in their power has grown bigger for the government has not been able to crack them down by force. They have stopped the election commissions from working in some areas for some time and then allowed them; this shows that they are still in control of a big part of Sa'ada. Their leader has even warned that no election will be run in Sa'ada without clear and concrete evidence that the government will implement peace agreement and construct the destroyed houses and farms.
It seems that regime wants to keep the situation there as it is where the situation will develop into confrontations between some tribes and the al-Houthis and the government will keep watching. And here lies the problem.
Similarly, the situation in the southern part remains very tense. Following the protests in the last few months and the arrest of the leaders of protests, the enthusiasm remained high; we could see protests here and there every now and then; the elections commissions were stopped from doing their work at the registration phase in many centers; some even were attacked by hand grenades like in Abyan.
Now, the situation is clam due to the Eid vacation and it seems this break gives the people in charge of the protests a chance to prepare for the next phase; they have even announced they have set their agenda for the coming days.
This shows a tense situation which will exacerbate further if the ruling party decides to go ahead with election alone without the opposition.
The government also continues to face the threat of al-Qaeda. There have been a number of threats to attack Western interests and some government agencies during the period before the Eid. The US embassy said that it had received threats recently. This means that the al-Qaeda is still strong. Following the US embassy attack, the government of Yemen came back to the frontline in terms of fighting terrorism and had to somehow restore the US confidence it in fighting terror. Before that, the security forces succeeded in killing Hamza al-Quaiti and some of his friends in Tarim, Hadramut.
The government, therefore, announced last November that 60 al-Qaeda suspects will be presented to court in batches. Eight of them appeared before court and were accused of plotting to carry out attacks against government and foreign interests as well as tourists to take revenge for al-Quaiti. This means the threats of al-Qaeda remain high and possible attacks are likely.
Another important challenge is the political deadlock due to the failure of the ruling party and the opposition coalition to reach an agreement over the parliamentary elections due next April. It has become certain that it is going to be difficult for the opposition coalition to take part in the election for the time is not enough. The opposition has raised the momentum of demands that have to be met in order for them to take part in the election. Similarly, the ruling party is in a fix; it wants to go into election before the consequences of the international financial crisis starts to appear. Again, it can accept the delay of the elections for longer period of time so that it has enough time to handle the consequences of the financial problem. However, the donors have clearly voiced concern over the current political impasse and advised the government to postpone the election until agreement with the opposition on the preconditions and make-up of the electoral committee had been reached. They, therefore, can understand a postponement for a couple of months.
All in all, the economic hardship, on the top of these challenges, is expected to worsen due to the consequences of the international crisis. The government tried to mislead the public by belittling the consequences of this problem hitting all countries. The reduction of the budget is a concrete example on this impact.We cross our fingers in the hope the people in charge will realize the seriousness of these challenges and work accordingly.
Happy New Year to all.
Dr. Mohammed Al-Qadhi ([email protected]) is a Yemeni journalist and columnist.
——
[archive-e:1222-v:16-y:2009-d:2009-01-05-p:opinion]
