Silver LiningChallenging Yemen’s Fall into Somalia Trap! [Archives:2006/924/Opinion]

Mohammed Hatem Al-Qadhi
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Recently, President Ali Abdullah Saleh has made a cabinet reshuffle which he described as a need for renewal. Change is always a healthy sign of renovation and breathing a new life into the society. Some people welcomed the cabinet reshuffle, at least for removing the long-aged ministers.

President Saleh said that the cabinet reshuffle has come as an acknowledgment of the need to bring new hot blood into the government and that the donors have nothing to do with that. Then, why after many years we have come to understand the importance of removing the minister of finance from his post.

But, I know that the donors have been fed up with some of the kicked out ministers and described them as” destruction to reform” and any change. The donor countries ambassadors met Saleh and explained to him that they can no longer continue donating money that does not bring about any fruits. The World Bank already did cut some of its annual aid due failure to meet minimum standards of fiscal transparency and efficiency and a lack of improvement to the national investment environment. So, the government change is a response to the international community pressure which recognizes the seriousness of the situation and the importance of keeping the momentum of reform in Yemen.

However, change can not take place by just removing this or that minister who is most of the time an ordinary puppet in the hands of the big guys at the power centers and cronies of the president. The problem does not completely have to do with the ministers. I know that some ministers are competent and are well-qualified and manage to do something. Still, they face a lot of pressure from the big guys. I have met some ministers who have complained the pressure exercised on them by some big influential people, considering them just as employees who should obey their orders and fulfill their requests without discussion.

In other words, change needs a political will and decision as well as a broad public involvement and participation. I know it can not happen overnight but it is a process that takes time. But, there must be a serious start. Of course, there are elements or forces that are happy with the current situation and consider any shake-up is an attack on them and will, therefore, work hard to cripple any steps of change. Who are these people or forces in Yemen? They are the big tribal chiefs as well as the cronies of the president who are refueling the corruption drive in the country. Any real change should start with them, otherwise talking about reform is nonsense and meaningless. I know this is difficult and challenging but it is the only way out to rescue the collapse of the whole system, just like what happened in Somalia. Certainly, this will require a genuine hard work and commitment.

I have met a number of Western diplomats, journalists and analysts who all share the concern over the future of this country and the urgency of change, demonstrating the fear of Yemen's fall into the trap of Somalia, Afghanistan or Lebanon after 1975. Several international organizations have warned of the collapse of the system unless prompt actions are not taken to address several political and economic issues.

The President has been very critical to the opposition and people calling for reform. He said in his speech at the Youth conference last Wednesday that the exaggeration of those people is meant to split the country, following the example of Somalia and Iraq.

I do not think Mr. President that those people calling for reform, which is now a must, will embroil the country into the tumult of civil war and division. It is rather pervasive corruption, absence of rule of law, tribalism, extremism, lack of development and many other pitfalls we are plagued with that can lead to the trap of Somalia. Real and drastic reform is the only way out and tinny window of hope remaining.

I still remember I wrote in the Yemen Times in September 1999 prior to the first presidential election which we all considered at that time an important for starting a real change and reform. I said exactly the following: “Well, the result of the election is already known that Ali Abdullah Saleh will hit the first place because he is seen by many people as the man of the time and also because he has no real competitor. Therefore, it is time that he launched a radical change and fight against corruption which make him recommend the love of all. I believe this is a time-tested challenge for him. He has a lot of institutions that have to be modernized and mopped up of the crooked and corrupt officials. Fighting against corruption should be his primary concern. He has also to introduce a new life to the perverted and corrupt judicial system. The question of lawlessness and security mess is to be of the vital issues that have to be healed. Above all, the issue of political reconciliation is to be reviewed. These issues in addition to many others are the main headache of the country. Therefore, I do keep my fingers crossed that the president will be able to overcome them all and introduce a radical change into the life of our society. Amine!”

After seven years, we are still burdened with the same challenges. Saleh is the same person, who will surely be the winner in the next presidential election if held in due time in September, to face these challenges. Yemen is completely exhausted and can no longer tolerate the delay of addressing these main concerns and challenges. As I said earlier, we still have a tinny window of hope left. Will this little window be opened up to deter the country from falling into Somalia trap before it is late?!
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